Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
